Economic Policy in an Era of Compounded Climatic, Geopolitical, and Technological Risks (4CMFI)

The forthcoming Fourth International Conference on the Climate–Macro–Finance Interface (4CMFI) builds on a series of previous events that have progressively investigated the emergence of a new macroeconomic regime: the end of the Great Moderation (1CMFI), the environmental challenges confronting fiscal, monetary, and macroprudential policy (2CMFI), and the macro-financial consequences of polycrisis and rising uncertainty (3CMFI). Whether a whole, new regime has already taken hold—and, if so, how it should be characterized—remains an open and still-unsettled question.

Persistent negative supply-side pressures, demographic reversal, de-globalization, geopolitical fragmentation, the accelerating climate, nature and biodiversity crises, and the rapid spread of artificial intelligence may be reshaping the macro-financial environment. Rather than a series of isolated shocks, these forces may be combining into a system of mutually reinforcing pressures—though some may yet prove temporary or partly offsetting. Against this backdrop, the 4CMFI conference will examine the changing landscape and potential regime change in relation to the features of the diverse supply-side shocks, inflationary and stagflationary pressures, natural real interest rate dynamics, secular stagnation, and the productivity slowdown. Two questions are of particular interest: first, how do climate, geopolitical, and technological forces interact, and through which channels they become self-reinforcing risks?; and second, how might the digital and green transitions reinforce one another in ways that support growth in a sustained and sustainable manner?

The 4CMFI conference then turns to policy implications, assessing how fiscal, monetary, and macroprudential policies -together with structural measures- can be designed and, crucially, coordinated to enhance resilience. Specific issues include how to preserve central bank credibility and debt sustainability when monetary tightening, climate-related fiscal needs, and geopolitical stress pull in opposite directions; how to finance adaptation, mitigation, and supply-side renewal without amplifying financial fragilities; how AI reshapes productivity, labor markets, and financial stability, and whether it can be harnessed as part of the solution; and how to reconcile resilience-building with open trade and international cooperation in a fragmented order.

Against this background, 4CMFI will bring together academics, researchers, and policymakers to advance our understanding of these unfolding macro-financial dynamics and to propose actionable, evidence-based policies -confronting frontier scientific findings with the operational constraints faced by central banks, treasuries, and supervisors, so as to clarify the nature of the emerging regime and the policy frameworks that could stabilize it.

We welcome submissions on the following topics, among others:

• The end of the Great Moderation: Is the supply-side reversal permanent? Inflation, stagflation, and the level of the natural rate of interest.
• The productivity slowdown: competing explanations and early evidence of an emerging regime.
• Climate change, nature degradation, and biodiversity loss; physical and transition risk: pricing, stress testing, scenario design, and insurance.
• The macro-financial implications of artificial intelligence: productivity, labor markets, and financial stability.
• Geoeconomic fragmentation, deglobalization, critical minerals, and supply-chain disruptions.
• Debt sustainability, the debt trap, and the fiscal–financial stability nexus under climate and geopolitical stress.
• Disruptions to the global order and the reshaping of policy frameworks and institutional coordination (monetary, fiscal, macroprudential) for the new regime.
• Financing the green and digital transitions under fiscal constraints.
• Resilience and supply-side growth policies that are robust to deep regime uncertainty
• Macroprudential policy and resilience against compound and cascading risks (climatic, geopolitical, technological).
• Inflation, stagflation risk, expectation anchoring, and central bank credibility in a fragmented world.
• Adapting econometric tools for measuring and forecasting macro-financial and extreme-weather risk in a multi-crisis environment.
• Characterizing the new macroeconomic regime: structural breaks vs. transitory shocks, and econometric tests of regime change.

Keynote Speakers

• Frank Elderson (European Central Bank)
• Marcin Kacperczyk (Imperial College London)
• Bas ter Weel (De Nederlandsche Bank)

Special Sessions

• Special Session hosted by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB)
• Special Session hosted by the European Central Bank (ECB)
• Special Session hosted by the Bank of England (BoE)

Venue

The conference is in-person and will be held at the Erasmus Economics School, Erasmus University, Burgemeester Oudlaan 50, 3062 PA Rotterdam, The Netherlands.

Deadlines

• Paper submission deadline: 22 December 2026
• Notification: 31 December 2026
• Registration for contributors: 1-14 January 2027
• Late Registration for contributors: 15-20 January 2027
• Late Registration for non-contributors ends on 1 February 2027

Registration Fee (including 21% VAT)

• Non-Corporate (academic and public/international organizations)
• Early fee: € 375 (standard); € 275 (PhD students)
• Late fee: € 450 (standard); € 350 (PhD students)
• Corporate (private sector industry)
• Early fee: € 550
• Late fee: €  600

The registration fee includes the daily catering and the welcome reception. No refunds are available.

Submit your paper through ConferenceMaker

Organizers

• Guido Ascari (De Nederlandsche Bank)
• Erik Kole (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
• Rasmus Lonn (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
• Fulvia Marotta (De Nederlandsche Bank)
• Francesco Paolo Mongelli (Goethe University Frankfurt)
• Claudio Morana (University of Torino)
• Livio Stracca (European Central Bank)

• Caroline Willeke (RCEA)

   

Local Organizers

• Erik Kole (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
• Rasmus Lonn (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Scientific Committee

• Lucia Alessi (Joint Research Centre - European Commission)
• Cristina Angelico (Bank of Italy)
• Guido Ascari (De Nederlandsche Bank & University of Pavia)
• Richard Baillie (King's College London)
• David Barmes (London School of Economics)
• Sandra Batten (Bank of England)
• Pierpaolo Benigno (University of Bern)
• Hilde Bjørnland (BI Norwegian Business School)
• Alessandra Canepa (University of Torino)
• Nuno Cassola (University of Lisbon)
• Jennifer Castle (University of Oxford)
• Marcelle Chauvet (University of California, Riverside)
• Andrea Colciago (University of Milano-Bicocca & Bundesbank)
• Laura Coroneo (University of York)
• Tatjana Dahlhaus (Bank of Canada)
• Paul De Grauwe (London School of Economics)
• Stephan Dées (Bank of France)
• Sandra Eickmeier (Bundesbank)
• Mahmoud Fatouh (Bank of England)
• Fabrizio Ferriani (Bank of Italy)
• Isabel Figuerola Ferretti (Comillas Pontifical University)
• Davide Furceri (International Monetary Fund)
• Lola Gadea (University of Zaragoza)
• Domenico Giannone (Johns Hopkins University)
• Clara Gonzalez (Bank of Spain)
• Jesus Gonzalo (Carlos III Universityof Madrid)
• Benjamin Guin (Bank of England)
• Refet Gurkaynak (Bilkent University)
• Matthias Hartmann (Bundesbank)
• Florian Heider (SAFE and Goethe University Frankfurt)
• Ana Herrera (University of Kentucky)
• Fredj Jawadi (University of Lille)
• Diego Kaenzig (Northwestern University)
• Erik Kole (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
• Danae Kyriakopoulou (Bank of England)
• Rasmus Lonn (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
• Fulvia Marotta (De Nederlandsche Bank)
• Christoph Meinerding (Bundesbank)
• Edwin Millar (Bank of England)
• Irene Monasterolo (Utrecht University)
• Emanuel Mönch (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management)
• Francesco Paolo Mongelli (Goethe University Frankfurt)
• Claudio Morana (University of Torino)
• Caroline Nerlich (European Central Bank)
• Roberto Panzica (Bank of Portugal)
• Georgios Papadopoulos (Bank of Greece)
• Miles Parker (European Central Bank)
• Michael Plummer (Johns Hopkins University)
• Romanos Priftis (European Central Bank)
• Dennis Reinhardt (Bank of England)
• Natalie Rickard (Bank of England)
• Glenn Rudebusch (Brookings Institution)
• Edgar Silgado-Gómez (Bank of Spain)
• Thomas Stoerk (National Bank of Belgium)
• Livio Stracca (European Central Bank)
• Gregory Sutton (Bank for International Settlements)
• Elod Takats (Bank for International Settlements)
• Patrizio Tirelli (University of Pavia)
• Caroline Willeke (RCEA)
• Andrea Zaghini (Bank of Italy)

Contact: RCEA at rcea.world@gmail.com

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