Special International Conference on Trade Wars, Geopolitical Fragmentation and Repercussions for Financial and Monetary

Background and Context:

Global financial and economic imbalances are central to current policy debates on global financial, economic, and political forums. Escalating trade wars, slowing global growth, and geopolitical tensions create new risks for international financial and monetary stability. In addition to the highly publicised trade war between the US and China, some of the closest allies of the former, including Canada, Japan, the UK and other European countries, are witnessing a major shift in their relations with the US. This was partly in response to the so-called “liberation day”, when President Trump imposed tariffs on each US trading partner, pointedly raising the issue of “unfairness” in current trade arrangements. The assertion of unfair trade practices has a political dimension, yet there is no strong supportive evidence or consensus on this issue. For example, the large US trade deficit may reflect an imbalance in investment and savings, a huge budget deficit and productivity, etc., rather than the unfair practices of its trading partners. Furthermore, the demand for dollars as a reserve currency has exacerbated the US trade deficit, contributing to global imbalances. Large trade deficits in the UK and the US can be associated with the prominent role of finance and banking in these economies, which attract international investments but can weigh heavily on export performance. These deficits were financed in part by capital flows from major oil exporters and emerging (surplus) economies. Further, the low international interest rate environment–a result of the large supply of global savings–has played some role. On the other hand, the idea of lifting capital controls and a freely floating Renminbi is also debatable.

The challenges that the international trade war initiated by the US administration is bringing to global financial markets and institutions, central banks, investors, business and societies, open new avenues of curiosity and research. The sharp systemic increase in tariffs, the future of the global monetary and financial system, central banking, de-dollarisation, and inter- and intra-Eurozone financial imbalances, in conjunction with increasing international financial integration and financialization, are important aspects to explore. Yet our understanding of these challenges and, hence, the optimal financial and monetary policy response is limited. The identification of these nexuses and implications of trade wars for financial and economic stability is vital to achieving order in the domestic and global financial and monetary system. Therefore, this conference is both timely and necessary to meet some of the most pressing challenges in the age of 21st-century protectionism. 

Objectives and Scope:

The objectives of the conference include the exploration of the trade war’s financial and economic repercussions and solutions that ensure financial and monetary stability. Papers will be written by academics and practitioners of financial and economic policies and financial management, particularly focusing on the impact of trade policy on international financial and monetary stability, and the era of conflict and protectionism.

Conference Website: https://leedsbrunel.sciencesconf.org/

Paper Submission (Deadline 1 September): Click Here

Registration & Payment (Deadline 30 September): Click Here

Potential Topics:

-Art of the (trade) deal and financial costs

-Asymmetric impacts on regions, commodity exporters, service-oriented economies and manufacturing centres

-Capital flows and sudden stops due to trade wars

-Central Banking in the age of trade wars and geopolitical conflicts

-Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), trade wars and geopolitical tensions

-Currency weaponisation, competitive devaluation and financial instability

-Digitisation, financial decoupling and financial stability during trade conflicts

-Emerging markets and international financial flows under trade tensions

-Empirical and theoretical analyses of strategic financial policies under trade restrictions

-Exorbitant privilege of the US$ in the 21st century and the rise of alternative currencies

-European Economic and Monetary Union’s financial integration with the US and the Global South 

-Financialization in the context of trade wars 

-Global financial imbalances, causes and financial consequences in the context of trade wars

-International financial and monetary architecture and stress management in the age of trade conflict

-Inflation targeting, trade wars and geopolitical conflicts

-Productivity, innovation and efficiency related to technological spillovers and protectionism

-Reallocation of global capital, safe havens and asset price bubbles during trade conflicts

-Regional financial and monetary integration and the positive role of regions during trade conflicts

-Role of central banks and macroprudential policy during trade conflicts

-Sustainable financial development of the Global South and trade wars

-Tariffs and non-tariff barriers and their negative financial impact on markets and firms

Keynote Speaker:

Beata Javorcik is Chief Economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in London and holds a Statutory Professorship in Economics at Oxford University. She is a member of the Royal Economic Society’s Executive Committee and a Director of the International Trade Programme at the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London. Before taking up her position at Oxford University, she worked at the World Bank in Washington D.C. She holds a PhD in Economics from Yale and a BA in Economics from the University of Rochester.

Panel Discussants: Ricardo Reis (LSE), Gulcin Ozkan (KCL), Jagjit Chadha (Cambridge)

Conference Organisers:

Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Brunel University of London (UK)

Muhammad-Ali Nasir, University of Leeds (UK)

Peter Phelps, University of Leeds (UK)

Special Issue:

Papers accepted at the conference will be considered for publication in a special issue in Journal of International Money and Finance. There will be a dedicated session at the conference to introduce the special issue. The indicative submission window for the special issue is 1 December, 2026 to 30 June, 2027, with an acceptance deadline of no later than 31 December, 2027. Presentation at conference does not guarantee publication in the special issue; only the highest quality submissions will be considered for peer-review. The special issue Guest Editors are Philip Arestis (Cambridge University), Guglielmo Maria Caporale (Brunel University of London), Muhammad Ali-Nasir (University of Leeds) and Peter Phelps (University of Leeds). The special issue will be overseen by Professor Menzie Chinn (University of Wisconsin-Madison), JIMF Co-Editor. The final decision on publication rests with the journal.

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