The E-axes Forum has awarded its prestigious Research Prize for 2025 to two groundbreaking scholars whose work addresses the pressing intersections of climate policies and economic stability. Assistant Professor Shifrah Aron-Dine from UC Berkeley and DPhil candidate Sarah Duffy from the University of Oxford were recognized for their influential papers that explore the implications of natural disasters and climate change on financial systems and macroeconomic policies. 

Shifrah Aron-Dine's co-winning paper, titled “Rebuild or Relocate? Recovery after Natural Disasters,” delves into the distributional impacts of Hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico. Utilizing flight data and original surveys, her research reveals that approximately 7% of the population migrated to the mainland U.S. post-hurricane, reflecting significant migration costs that deterred even more potential departures. Those who remained faced substantial challenges, including damages to homes and local economies. Through her dynamic equilibrium model, Aron-Dine highlights how factors such as age, wealth, and housing tenure influence decisions regarding recovery and migration. Her analysis concludes that while local infrastructure investment can serve as a cost-effective intervention, current rebuilding subsidies for homeowners may not yield the intended welfare improvements. These findings suggest that more flexible policies could greatly enhance resilience in the face of future disasters, providing vital insights for policymakers aiming to optimize disaster response strategies. 

Meanwhile, Sarah Duffy's research, “Climate Change, Adaptation, and Sovereign Risk,” tackles the essential topic of how fiscal constraints limit climate adaptation efforts in emerging markets. Duffy develops a sovereign default model that incorporates the risk posed by natural disasters, revealing a vicious cycle dubbed the ‘adaptation trap.’ Her analysis identifies how climate change exacerbates borrowing costs while adaptation efforts can reduce them, highlighting the paradox that high debt levels restrict necessary adaptation, further amplifying losses from climate-related events. Duffy employs a novel text analysis method to quantify adaptation expenditures in government budgets, demonstrating a strong correlation between sovereign ratings and adaptation initiatives. She posits that without strategic interventions, particularly debt relief, emerging economies could suffer substantial economic setbacks, as illustrated by projected GDP losses due to cyclones.

Both prize-winning papers provide crucial evidence that informs policymakers and researchers aiming to build more resilient economies in the era of climate change. As the world faces increasing environmental challenges, the insights from Aron-Dine and Duffy underscore the importance of integrated approaches that marry climate action with sound economic policy. The papers will be presented by the winners at an E-Axes Forum webinar in January 2026, moderated by a member of the Prize Committee.

Read Shifrah Aron-Dine's winning paper in full here and read more about her research interests on her personal website.

Read Sarah Duffy's winning paper in full here and read more about her research interests on her personal website.

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_{^{Image Credits: E-axes, University of Oxford, Vanessa Coleman/UC Berkeley, shifraharondine.com}}