The 5th Biennial Conference on "Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment" will take place on 21-22 September 2023 at the University of Padua, Italy.
The COVID-19 pandemic and the 40-year high inflation rate have triggered massive spikes in risk and uncertainty and raised many challenges for macroeconomic modelers and forecasters. Modeling these events and their consequences for the business cycle as well as for forecasting key macroeconomic indicators is challenging because it calls for frameworks able to handle health shocks, sudden and abrupt structural changes (among which supply chain disruptions), pressures on various energy markets, and the unconventional policy responses that have been put into place by most Governments around the world.
Following the success of the first four conferences, the University of Padua, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, International Institute of Forecasters, American University, and International Monetary Fund will jointly organize the 5th biennial conference on “Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment”. Our in-person, two-day conference will bring together researchers and policymakers to present and discuss novel approaches to understand how to effectively model the uncertainty-business cycle relationship and forecast key macroeconomic indicators in the context of a changing environment.
The keynote speakers will be David Altig (Atlanta Fed) and Francesco Bianchi (Johns Hopkins University).
The conference papers will cover, among others, topics such as various approaches to measuring uncertainty and risk; uncertainty and its global spillovers; conducting monetary policy in times of uncertainty; the role of uncertainty in economic forecasting; identification of uncertainty shocks; assessing the effects of uncertainty at the firm and household levels; causal effects of uncertainty on the global economy and financial markets; uncertainty and climate change; trade policy uncertainty and geo-economic fragmentation; inflation uncertainty; forecasting in a changing environment. The scope of the conference is not limited to the topics listed above and submissions from all areas of uncertainty and risk are welcome.
Please download the call for papers here
The deadline for paper submissions is May 31, 2023. Authors of accepted papers will be informed by June 30, 2023.
Giovanni Caggiano (dSEA University of Padua)
Efrem Castelnuovo (dSEA University of Padua)
Davide Furceri (International Monetary Fund)
Brent Meyer (Federal Reserve Bank at Atlanta)
Giovanni Pellegrino (dSEA University of Padua)
Xuguang Simon Sheng (American University)
Scientific Committee (including conference organizers)
Wojtek Charemza (Vistula University)
Laurent Ferrara (SKEMA Business School)
Klodiana Istrefi (Banque de France)
Svetlana Makarova (University College London)
Gabriel Mathy (American University)
Chiara Scotti (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
Bo Sun (University of Virginia)
via del Santo 33
35123 Padova , Italy